Isaac.Eiland-Hall.com

This storm is really, all things considered, a non-event, but still worth discussing as the first storm of the season.

Looks like there’s deterioration; but no significant change from the previous: Probably won’t make landfall, but rather dissipate over the next four days.

000

WTNT41 KNHC 092058

TCDAT1

SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012007

500 PM EDT WED MAY 09 2007

THE ORGANIZATION OF ANDREA HAS DETERIORATED SOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS…WITH A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN CONVECTION PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. SOME BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSIST…HOWEVER…ELSEWHERE IN THE CIRCULATION…AND SHIP WBVY REPORTED 37 KT WINDS AT 18Z ABOUT 75 N MI NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE ANDREA TOMORROW MORNING…AND THE NEXT QUIKSCAT PASS OVER OR NEAR ANDREA WILL OCCUR NEAR 00Z THIS EVENING. IN THE MEANTIME…IT IS REASONABLE TO MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY AT 40 KT.

ANDREA IS CURRENTLY OVER SSTS NO WARMER THAN ABOUT 25 CELSIUS…AND THE SLOW MOTION SHOWN IN THE TRACK FORECAST PROBABLY MEANS SOME EVEN COOLER WATERS WILL BE CHURNED UP FROM BENEATH THE SURFACE.

THEREFORE…IN ACCORDANCE WITH ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE…A WEAKENING TREND IS ANTICIPATED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS DISSIPATION NEAR THE COAST IN LESS THAN FOUR DAYS.

THE SLOPPY CIRCULATION MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO CONFIDENTLY DETERMINE THE INITIAL MOTION…BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE REMAINS SLOW AND GENERALLY WESTWARD OR 265/4.  RECENT IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM MIGHT HAVE STARTED SAGGING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST.

THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR THE SUPPORTING REASONING.  SINCE ANDREA IS TRAPPED WITHIN A LARGE

MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST TO NOT MOVE MUCH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…A SLOW AND GENERALLY SOUTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST.  BEYOND THAT TIME…SOME OF THE MODELS FORECAST THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO DECOUPLE FROM THE DECAYING MIDDLE- AND UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA…SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES A NEARLY STATIONARY AND DISSIPATING SYSTEM NEAR THE COAST BY 72 HOURS.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK…INTENSITY…AND WIND RADII… THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS UNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      09/2100Z 30.8N  80.1W    40 KT

12HR VT     10/0600Z 30.6N  80.6W    35 KT

24HR VT     10/1800Z 30.2N  80.8W    35 KT

36HR VT     11/0600Z 29.8N  80.9W    30 KT

48HR VT     11/1800Z 29.5N  80.9W    30 KT

72HR VT     12/1800Z 29.5N  80.9W    25 KT…DISSIPATING

96HR VT     13/1800Z…DISSIPATED

$$

FORECASTER KNABB

Well! About twenty days before the start of the official hurricane season, and we have our first storm. Subtropical, yes, but a named storm, by golly…

I’d seen this forming off the coast a couple of days ago—or rather, I saw on the SE Radar composite that it looked like a low pressure area out there… I guess it was!

Welcome to the pre-season!

I’m thinking this year will be more like 2005 than last year, simply because we don’t appear to have the El Nino effect to dampen things this year.

Here’s a current radar capture:

If you look to the left of Tallahassee, you’ll see some red markings – that’s two Xs with a red circle around each. The right X is where I live (The left one is the flower shop – it’s rather more useful looking a local weather…)

And here’s the satellite:

NHC Discussion:

000
WTNT41 KNHC 091459
TCDAT1
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
1100 AM EDT WED MAY 09 2007

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE INITIAL LEG OF THE MISSION WAS FLOWN AT 300 MB FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER…AND SEVERAL DROPSONDES WERE RELEASED. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES REVEAL A RATHER FLAT THERMAL CROSS-SECTION…NOT INDICATING A DISCERNIBLE WARM OR COLD CORE AT ANY VERTICAL LEVEL. THE WIND PROFILES…HOWEVER…SHOW WINDS INCREASING WITH HEIGHT IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION AND DECREASING WITH HEIGHT IN THE EASTERN HALF. GOES IMAGERY INDICATES THAT…COMPARED TO YESTERDAY…THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CONSOLIDATED CLOSER TO THE CENTER…BUT PRIMARILY IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT HINT OF UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW WHICH WAS COMPLETELY ABSENT YESTERDAY…BUT THE SYSTEM REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH. ALSO…THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS HAS CONTRACTED FROM MORE THAN 100 N MI YESTERDAY TO ABOUT 50-60 N MI THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE HYBRID STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM…ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA. THE 40 KT INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN EARLY MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS AND RECENT AIRCRAFT DATA FROM 850 MB.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS SLOW AND GENERALLY WESTWARD…ABOUT 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT. SINCE ANDREA IS ESSENTIALLY TRAPPED WITHIN A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST TO NOT MOVE MUCH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS…ANDREA WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY…BUT IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE SCENARIO PAINTED BY ALL OF THE MODELS…TAKING THE SYSTEM SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO. NONE OF THE MODELS BRING ANDREA INLAND…AND NEITHER DOES THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. ANDREA IS CURRENTLY OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF NO MORE THAN ABOUT 25 CELSIUS…AND THEY WILL NOT GET ANY WARMER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THEREFORE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS ANTICIPATED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS DISSIPATION NEAR THE COAST IN LESS THAN FIVE DAYS. HOWEVER…SINCE ANDREA MIGHT BRING WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE TO THE COAST…A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/1500Z 30.8N 79.3W 40 KT

12HR VT 10/0000Z 30.6N 79.9W 40 KT 24HR VT 10/1200Z 30.2N 80.6W 35 KT 36HR VT 11/0000Z 29.8N 81.0W 35 KT 48HR VT 11/1200Z 29.6N 81.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 12/1200Z 29.5N 81.0W 25 KT 96HR VT 13/1200Z 29.5N 81.0W 25 KT…DISSIPATING
120HR VT 14/1200Z…DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

The News-Press: Legislature

Quote: Several students who came to Tallahassee this week on behalf of the “Jeffrey Johnston Stand Up For All Students Act,” were told by one lawmaker that they needed psychological treatment because they’re gay.

What the hell? I mean really – what the hell?

I don’t understand people like that.

Well… that’s not quite true. I grew up, brainwashed into Christianity. And there are a lot of Christians out there who aren’t idiots like that—but there surely are a lot of them that are.

I hate stupidity. And that’s just stupid.

Charlotte Observer | 03/13/2007 | Mag: Morganton a top retirement town

Quote: Other communities on the list were Natchez, Miss.; San Antonio, Texas; Lafayette, La.; Dothan, Ala.; Chattanooga, Tenn.; Georgetown, S.C.; Virginia Beach, Va.; Valdosta, Ga.; Hot Springs, Ark.; and Panama City, Fla.

Natchez and Panama City are, of course, both good retirement communities…

Given the size of each community, I’m surely the only one (besides close family) that would think this is kinda cool to see them both on the same list… heh.

So I suppose I’m spamming my own blog – but hey, I do this for me as much as whoever is reading.

At Least 2 Die In Car Hit By 2 Trains – Local/Florida News

Quote: “This particular person … tried to go against the odds and beat the train across the track,” Jacksonville Sheriff’s Office spokesman Ken Jefferson said. “They didn’t bank on two trains coming simultaneously across the track.”

Sad? Sure.

Stupid? You bet.

Travel Video Television News

Quote: As the 2007 Spring Break season quickly approaches, Panama City Beach is launching its “Celebrate Safely” Campaign. Now in its fifth year, the campaign features the slogan, “Not a break from common sense – Celebrate safely.” This message is prominently displayed in Panama City Beach on billboards, posters, fliers and in public service announcements to reach the 250,000 – 300,000 spring breakers Panama City Beach anticipates this season, beginning on March 3, 2007.

Ah, the joys of being a “local”.

Spring Break…

After three years of living here, it means:

– Heavy traffic on the beach for several months. (You learn NOT to drive down Front Beach Road after about noon) – The occasional story about some drunk moron(s) falling to their death off a hotel balcony

I suppose it also means quite a bit of dosh for the economy, but I don’t think I personally see very much of it at all.

Meh…

Boring article, but it was an excuse to post about spring break and get this blog moving again…

Tropical Storm ERNESTO Forecast Discussion

Article: AFTER REACHING THE GULF OF MEXICO…THE MODEL TRACKS DIVERGE AS STEERING CURRENTS SLACKEN WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE…WITH SOLUTIONS AS FAR WEST AS THE GFDN THAT TAKES ERNESTO TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF…AND AS FAR EAST AS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AS SHOWN BY THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND THE NOGAPS.

Well… With this update, I’m now keeping a close eye on this storm…

The good news so far is that Day 4 and 5 are so uncertain that (see the bit I quoted above) there’s just no telling yet…

The bad news is that we’re definitely in the running as much as anyone across the gulf coast right now, and it’s looking more and more like a Cat1-Cat2 landfall (of course, WAY way WAY too early to even really guess….)

Here’s the current model spread:

This would make it look like we’re out of the woods—but you have to realize that these aren’t the full set of models that the forecasters have, and they’re typically some combination of up-to-date and out-of-date…

I look at the NHC forecast discussion to find out what’s really going on, before I look at any other info… Then I look at the forecast tracks from NHC (although I like the NRL-MRY better, with the TS-level, Gale-level, and Hurricane-level forecast windspeed quarters) to see where the consensus is, armed with the forecaster’s comments… So in this case, the track at day 4/5 is uncertain – which makes me worry less that the track is moving closer to us… Now, in 2-3 days, we should have a much better feel—and Ernesto could swing well away from us, or leave us in the running…

So, we’ll see.

As always…

UPDATE: Check out the latest track from NRL-MRY:

Yummy…

Now, the latest NHC discussion makes it sound like chances are high it’ll slide to our east, but I suspect it will be tense around here in a couple of days…

Well, not really, but I thought this was amusing:

The white lines define the current (as of that radar image) projected stormtrack – this can change from image to image, and in fact, the next sweep was a bit different…

(We’re located nearly due south of the “PFN” airport icon – halfway between it and the east/west road to the south of it – at the center of the red rings. For a sense of scale, the red rings are 5, 10, and 25 miles)

Still, I’d rather write about this than the Middle East crisis for now…

Excite News

Quote: Police accidentally hit a naked man in the genitals with a Taser after he was caught breaking windows and asking women to touch him, authorities said.

Seems appropriate. Yet another reason not to resist police, mind…

Local10.com – News – Man, Sofa Fall Into Middle Of I-95

Quote: Police said the man, along with some other people, was traveling south on I-95 Tuesday evening when the incident happened. It was unclear why the man was in the back of the truck, but FHP said he was probably trying to help hold the furniture in place.

And this is where my wife comes from.

Explains a lot, don’t it? hehehe

Jailhouse Boast Leads Officers to Cash – Yahoo! News

Quote: Investigators failed to find the money in an October search behind a storage and building company in Fort Walton Beach, Florida, but they had success the following week when a former inmate appeared and asked the business for permission to search for money behind the building.

Tip of the day: When asking for permission to search for your hidden cash that you stashed on someone else’s property, try to come up with some sort of reasonable excuse. This is a primary example of what a reasonable excuse is not.

Other bit—this is from Fort Walton Beach, one metro area west along the beach… so it’s kinda close to home. heh.

Courtesy NASA:

You must download and watch this AWESOME AWESOME AWESOME movie.

Covers the 2005 season through part of Wilma.

Wow.

Just wow.

I mean…... Wow.

So here I am, watching Hurricane Wilma coverage… CNN had an ad up, so I went over to FOX and watched the idiot anchor being “blown around”... I use quotes, because when a vehicle pulled up behind them, and somebody went over to it, they were walking quite normally…

So after a bit, I got tired of that, so I switched over to CNN - which initially looked better as they weren’t showing any reporters, but rather six shots of cameras placed at various places…

But, unfortunately, they went to an anchor in Key West who was being blown around in the middle of a street… Two kids/teens/youngadults across the street, where it was dark but bright enough to make them out, came calmly walking up the street… When they were around the middle of the camera frame, just past the reporter, one of them started “being blown around by the wind” – again, quotes, because for a couple of seconds, the other one just stood there before joining in. It was obvious they were faking it.

I suspect they were a romantic pair, as although I couldn’t see well enough to see which was which, they were obviously hugging/kissing, leaned up against the wall.

And here again, Mr. Being Blown Around (because of those loose windbreakers) just interviewed a firefighter who was walking quite normally….

Buncha morons…

I have extremely little remaining respect for the television/cable media…

New weather service office devised as artful storm dodger

Quote: Built to withstand winds of 165 mph, it’s the only of the agency’s 122 bureaus designed to stand up to a Category 5 storm.

[...]

Even if the artful exterior collapses, an inner core is supposed to protect the staff from 255-mph winds.

Awesome.